Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.937694 2.250395 2.596440 3.007663 3.482951 4.014986 4.655765
2026-02-08 1.364351 1.760178 2.244780 2.881235 3.694891 4.700204 6.037101
2026-02-15 1.050235 1.476752 2.043868 2.852030 3.973522 5.474692 7.637757
2026-02-22 0.882279 1.333688 1.976954 2.958514 4.417293 6.504742 9.720403
2026-03-01 0.728922 1.173674 1.846870 2.937080 4.656711 7.263949 11.519413
2026-03-08 0.608290 1.036336 1.720123 2.887867 4.830087 7.930180 13.256710
2026-03-15 0.524419 0.940490 1.638463 2.889227 5.071805 8.721255 15.289311
2026-03-22 0.493648 0.927668 1.688881 3.114000 5.711554 10.241706 18.744491
2026-03-29 0.443380 0.870743 1.652362 3.177218 6.072710 11.326060 21.582345
2026-04-05 0.399754 0.818361 1.614778 3.229897 6.417057 12.418080 24.574879
2026-04-12 0.355532 0.757223 1.550718 3.220365 6.637809 13.303012 27.286781
2026-04-19 0.315169 0.697161 1.479326 3.184122 6.797325 14.084692 29.892418
2026-04-26 0.264562 0.608883 1.340887 2.996178 6.634524 14.233798 31.301294
2026-05-03 0.228622 0.546971 1.249054 2.894786 6.642862 14.742664 33.560623
2026-05-10 0.203893 0.506346 1.197313 2.873881 6.824489 15.645340 36.813720
2026-05-17 0.191226 0.492025 1.202608 2.984192 7.320003 17.304893 42.013217
2026-05-24 0.171847 0.457833 1.155996 2.963611 7.504185 18.281937 45.764934
2026-05-31 0.153330 0.422596 1.101298 2.914311 7.610598 19.090235 49.227818
2026-06-07 0.139694 0.397811 1.068759 2.915805 7.843777 20.234513 53.686292
2026-06-14 0.137927 0.404996 1.119517 3.142661 8.691660 23.016404 62.711859
2026-06-21 0.128924 0.390336 1.110168 3.206468 9.116843 24.780675 69.330523
2026-06-28 0.120320 0.375353 1.097652 3.259631 9.521220 26.545953 76.207796
2026-07-05 0.110258 0.354282 1.064844 3.250014 9.748593 27.868434 82.057997